Alex Ovechkin’s slump, big nights for Abdelkader, Datsyuk and Smith; lineup news, fantasy tips and more in Scott Cullen’s Statistically Speaking. Held scoreless in Wednesday’s 4-2 loss to Detroit, Capitals LW Alex Ovechkin has now gone a career-worst five consecutive games without a point. It’s not burying Ovechkin to point out that he’s in a slump (and I’ve already been something of an Ovechkin apologist in the past), but it’s easy to see that Ovechkin is really doing a lot well right now, even if the points haven’t been coming as expected over this short span of games. In the first nine games of the Barry Trotz era in Washington, Ovechkin has posted a career-best Corsi% (measuring even-strength shot attempts) of 59.4%. OVECHKIN POSSESSION STATS YEAR CORSI% CORSI REL% 2007-08 58.1% +4.2% 2008-09 57.4% +4.2% 2009-10 57.8% +7.2% 2010-11 53.9% +4.0% 2011-12 47.4% -2.3% 2012-13 49.2% +0.7% 2013-14 49.3% +2.5% 2014-15 59.4% +5.0% What’s encouraging about these numbers is that Ovechkin is driving play like he did earlier in his career, and a far cry from his 2011-2012 season when his offensive production hit career-low rates (65 points in 78 games). Like last season, Ovechkin is not getting much help from linemates – his lone assist this year has come on the power play – but thanks to a recent decline in shots on goal, his 4.22 shots on goal per game ranks as the second-lowest of his career. In the first four games of this dry spell, Ovechkin had mustered just seven shots on goal and that’s some reason for concern, because he’s always been a high-volume shooter, leading the league in shots on goal in eight of his nine seasons but, let’s not overreact, it was just four games. Wednesday, against Detroit, Ovechin attempted 13 shots, with seven on goal, against the Red Wings, which is a good way to get out of a scoring slump. Because Ovechkin’s underlying numbers have been so good, there’s not so much reason to worry about this slump, because those signs point to goals and points coming back at a more regular rate soon. HEROES Justin Abdelkader – Hard-hitting winger who gets to play a complementary role with some elite players in Detroit and he scored two goals and an assist in Wednesday’s 4-2 win at Washington. He scored a career-high 28 points last season, but has eight points (5 G, 3 A) in nine games this year, riding a 22.7% shooting percentage that won’t last, but he is also playing a career-high 16:30 per game and generating a career-best 2.44 shots on goal per game. Pavel Datsyuk – The Magician tallied a goal and an assist, with a team-leading eight shot attempts (4 SOG) in the win at Washington. Datsyuk has five points in four games since returning from injury, and the Red Wings have eased him in, playing 18:42 per game. The last season in which he averaged less ice time per game (than this admittedly very small sample) was 2005-2006. Craig Smith – The Predators’ leading goal-scorer, with 24, last season, Smith buried a pair of goals on nine shot attempts (5 SOG), while posting quality possession stats (17 shot attempts for, 10 against, 63.0%) in a 4-1 win at Edmonton. ZEROES Niklas Kronwall – The Red Wings’ No. 1 defenceman had a rough night, possession-wise, on for five shot attempts for and 18 against (21.7%). His worst forward matchups, head-to-head, were against Capitals C Nicklas Backstrom (2 shot attempts for, 10 against, 16.7%) and RW Joel Ward (2 for, 13 against, 13.3%). Mark Arcobello – Despite not starting an even-strength shift in the defensive zone, the Oilers’ centre had his team’s worst possession stats (9 shot attempts for, 16 against, 36.0%). SHORT SHIFTS Red Wings C Henrik Zetterberg had a pair of assists…Predators D Roman Josi had two assists and blocked seven shots…Predators G Pekka Rinne stopped 26 of 27 shots for the win in Edmonton. LINEUP NEED TO KNOW Capitals RW Eric Fehr was scratched from the lineup as second-year RW Tom Wilson was inserted into the lineup for his first game of the season after suffering a broken ankle in the summer. Predators C Calle Jarnkrok, still looking for his first point of the season, was scratched from the lineup in Edmonton Wednesday. Predators D Seth Jones played a season-low 14:46 at Edmonton, though had a solid possession game (15 shot attempts for, 9 against, 62.5%) in that limited role. FIRSTS Predators C Matt Cullen played his first game of the season, picking up an assist while playing 15:18. FANTASY FOCUS A few players, available in more than half of TSN leagues, to monitor on a busy 10-game night in the NHL: Jori Lehtera – Someone in St. Louis has to get the puck to the Blues’ scoring wingers and with injuries to Paul Stastny and David Backes, Lehtera is clearly the best option down the middle. He has six points in seven games and is centering Alexander Steen and Vladimir Tarasenko heading into tonight’s matchup with Anaheim. Michael Raffl – Getting moved to the Flyers’ top line with Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek is working well for Raffl, who has four goals and five points in the past five games. Tonight, the Flyers go to Tampa Bay, which isn’t an easy matchup, but Raffl is still available in nearly 99% of TSN leagues. Seth Griffith – The rookie winger has emerged as the Bruins’ best option on the right side with David Krejci and Milan Lucic, scoring three goals and five points in the past four games. Really, anyone on the Bruins is worth a look since they are in Buffalo to play the Sabres. Much of the data included comes from
www.war-on-ice.com,
www.puckalytics.com,
www.hockeystats.ca and
www.naturalstattrick.com Scott Cullen can be reached at
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